Praescient Analyst Dominic Lisanti published a piece with Critical Threats Project Analyst Katherine Zimmerman on the changing landscape of transnational jihad. In particular, they focus on the new battlefront of Mali. They write that the arrest of two Americans headed for West Africa “may reveal a shift in popular destinations for those looking to participate in jihad. In the aftermath of this year’s military coup that toppled the fragile democracy in Bamako, Mali’s capital, and the subsequent declaration of the independence of Azawad (the region encompassing northern Mali) by the Tuareg-dominated National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), a variety of Islamist militant groups began fighting for territorial control in northern Mali. In addition to being a smuggling hub for drugs, cigarettes, weapons and humans, the region is increasingly beset by jihadist violence”

Finally, they argue this event  “underscore[s] the foothold that the al Qaeda network now has in Africa. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), historically an al Qaeda affiliate heavily involved in smuggling and kidnapping, has increased its presence in the region and benefited from the unrest in Libya. AQIM’s network, which runs through the Sahara Desert, has growing ties to more localized Islamist militant groups. The Tuareg rebellion in Mali and destabilizing effect of the coup opened the door for the Islamist militant groups Ansar al Din and the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA or MUJAO) to seize territory in northern Mali”. 

For the entire piece, click here